October 29 Gold Morning Brief: Fed Holds Rates, Two Votes Favor a Hike, Watch GDP and PCE Tonight

Author: Thomas | Gold Morning Brief | October 29, 2026

As of the morning of October 29 Beijing time, the gold market has already passed the point when the Fed's October meeting statement was released. Last night's 21:00 review only listed scenarios to watch; the facts that can be confirmed today are that the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged and that there is disagreement within the committee over rate hikes. For gold, the focus is not only that there was "no hike," but also how the statement describes inflation, the economy, and the room for future policy. This article is current as of about 09:00 Beijing time and does not write in advance the results of subsequent trading sessions.

Confirmed overnight policy changes

The statement published on the Fed's official website at 14:00 U.S. Eastern Time on October 28 shows that the federal funds rate target range was maintained at 3.75%–4.00%. The decision passed with 10 votes in favor and 2 against; the two dissenting members favored raising rates by 25 basis points at this meeting. The statement said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, inflation remains elevated, and mentioned uncertainty brought by geopolitics. These are already-published policy texts, not market forecasts for future meetings.

Keeping rates unchanged does not amount to declaring that no adjustment will be made afterward. The dissenting votes also cannot by themselves be used to infer that a hike is certain at the next meeting; the next policy decision still depends on subsequent data and the committee's decision. Gold prices may be affected simultaneously by the dollar, real yields, risk appetite, and safe-haven demand, and every overnight move cannot be attributed to this statement.

Quote snapshot and reading limits

The Kitco spot gold page showed a bid of USD 4,039.80 per ounce and an ask of USD 4,041.80 at 20:35 New York time on October 28; the page's corresponding intraday low was USD 4,024.20 and high was USD 4,083.00, showing a decline of 0.66% relative to the previous benchmark quote. New York was then on daylight saving time, and this snapshot corresponds to 08:35 Beijing time on October 29. It is a spot bid/ask quote from the Kitco data source, not a tradable XAUUSD price on this site's partner trading platform; the page's range and percentage change also follow their own statistical conventions.

From the Kitco bid of USD 4,047.40 at 08:06 New York time cited in last night's review to the USD 4,039.80 corresponding to 08:35 this morning, the two snapshots differ by USD 7.60. This calculation only compares two bid snapshots from the same source; it cannot represent the full path in between, and it certainly cannot be called the New York closing change. If prices have already changed when readers check, they should reassess based on a new quote with a stated time.

Today's data and disagreements

According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis schedule, the advance estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September personal income and outlays data are both scheduled for release at 08:30 U.S. Eastern Time on October 29; under the current New York daylight saving time, that is about 20:30 Beijing time tonight. Price information related to personal consumption expenditures and growth data may affect the market's understanding of the policy path. The data have not yet been released, and this article does not presuppose the results.

The bullish side may emphasize the support for gold from no rate hike and geopolitical uncertainty; the bearish side may focus more on the statement's strong growth, elevated inflation, and the policy disagreement reflected in the two votes favoring a hike. Both are interpretations, not verified next price directions. If tonight's data reinforce expectations that rates will stay high, gold may come under pressure; if growth or inflation signals change expectations, the opposite reaction may also occur. The market may also move sharply first and then reverse.

Checklist before trading

First verify the data release time and actual values, then observe the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and gold quotes within the same time window; afterward, check whether spreads, slippage, and liquidity have changed. Yesterday's Kitco high and low can serve as a historical observation range, but they are not necessarily valid support and resistance today. When there are no simultaneous data with the same methodology, preserving uncertainty is more reliable than chasing an explanation for a single candlestick. Leveraged trading carries relatively high risk; this article is market record and learning material and does not constitute trading advice.